The Rise of Civil Analytics: How Big Data is About to Explode Policymaking As We Know It

“In the post-fact era of mistrustful populism here is a compelling case for governments to double down on evidence, Big Data and predictive analytics. Lenihan and Pitfield argue that “civil analytics” holds the alluring promise of delivering powerful cures for today’s most wicked policy problems. It is a promise of effective, value-for- money government that everyone should welcome.”

Giles Gherson
Deputy Minister, Ontario Ministry of Economic Development + Growth Ontario
 

How Big Data is about to Explode Policymaking as We Know It is the first of a series of papers Canada 2020 will release on data and policymaking. In it, Tom Pitfield and Don Lenihan explain the shifts that will occur thanks to massive amounts of high quality data and a new capacity for data analytics. Using the right analytics tools, and involving the right leaders, could be considered an answer to the postfact politics that seem to be rising up all around us.
Civil Analytics, as Pitfield and Lenihan have defined the term, is a holistic approach to data, the tools that can be used to analyze it, and the various people who should be engaged to examine it. As agencies and individuals with various interests are included in the process of understanding the data and creating policies, they will feel a greater ownership over them, which results in easier adoption.
Pitfield and Lenihan have big things to say about history, technology and politics, and this essay should be of interest to anyone watching where policy is going and what big trends are on the horizon.
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Six Examples of Inclusive Innovation in the 2017 Federal Budget

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Canada 2020 released Volume One of its Innovation Project Towards an Inclusive, Innovative Canada in February, 2017. Its authors, Mike Moffatt, Hannah Rasmussen and David Watters examined innovation in Canada through various sectors, and how to measure it. Moffatt and Rasmussen developed Ten Big Ideas to Drive Innovation in Canada.
In writing this volume, Moffatt and Rasmussen wrote that their mission is:
“to increase innovation in Canada by creating a set of Big Ideas, which, if enacted, would have measurable results, whose benefits would be well understood, and that would increase the economic well-being and personal autonomy of the middle class and those working hard to join it.”
With this mission in mind, we examined the government of Canada’s 2017 federal budget and found six examples of inclusive innovation.

1. ACCELERATING INNOVATION THROUGH SUPERCLUSTERS

From the budget:
Successful cover3clusters like the ones in Silicon Valley, Berlin, Tel Aviv and the Toronto-Waterloo corridor contribute significantly to both regional and national economies.
Budget 2017 proposes to invest up to $950 million over five years, starting in 2017–18, to be provided on a competitive basis in support of a small number of business-led innovation superclusters that have the greatest potential to accelerate economic growth. The competition will launch in 2017 and focus on superclusters that enhance Canada’s global competitiveness by focusing on highly innovative industries such as clean technology, advanced manufacturing, digital technology, health/bio-sciences, clean resources and agri-food, as well as infrastructure and transportation.
Our Analysis:
This is an interesting idea – in Towards an Innovative, Inclusive Canada, Moffatt and Rasmussen were also thinking about driving innovation through superclusters. They suggested that academia and research could play a role in driving innovation. In one of their Ten Big Ideas to Drive Innovation in Canada, they proposed creating research clusters of knowledge in universities. Here is their recommendation:
The federal government should fund the creation of a network of cluster research centres across the country at universities within the geographic area of the cluster that would be required to provide a yearly set of deliverables to maintain their funding.
In addition, Moffatt and Rasmussen suggested thickening labour markers in medium-sized cities, outside of major urban centres and clusters like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. They suggested the government had an opportunity to grow clusters in medium-sized cities which would allow for the emergence of clusters in these cities.

2. SUPPORTING CANADIAN INNOVATORS THROUGH VENTURE CAPITAL

From the 2017 Budget:
To support the continued growth of Canada’s innovative companies, Budget 2017 proposes to make available up to an additional $400 million through the Business Development Bank of Canada on a cash basis over three years, beginning in 2017–18, for a new Venture Capital Catalyst Initiative that will increase late-stage venture capital available to Canadian entrepreneurs (late-stage venture capital is typically offered to young, established businesses with sales and revenue, in order to help the businesses grow).
With funds leveraged from the private sector, and depending on the proposals received, this investment could inject around $1.5 billion into Canada’s innovation capital market.
Our analysis:
As we traveled the country for our research groups, one comment we heard repeatedly was a lack of Canadian investment by way of venture capital for Canadian companies.
However, there is another side to investment in Canada’s emerging companies, and that is cultural. One participant in our Financial Services roundtable in Toronto talked about the cultural barrier to innovation – that is an adversity to taking risks.
Following our Financial Services roundtable in July 2016, Moffatt wrote in our innovation report, “A concern was raised that Canadian investors and managers may be too risk averse to be full participants in a highly innovative industry. As one participant put it, “[In Canadian MBA programs] there’s not a lot on how to take risk … . In [New York], the mentality of grads out of the U.S. is to take risks. There’s an acceptance that if you do that and fail that’s OK. In Canada, there’s stigma around failure.”
A suggestion was made that foreign investors from countries with higher appetites for risk, such as China, may be able to fill some of the financial (but not necessarily managerial) gaps.
It’s Canada 2020’s hope that the additional $400M outlined in the government’s federal budget will spur investment from other sectors also.

3. CANADA 150 RESEARCH CHAIRS

From the 2017 Federal budget:
In recognition of the importance of research excellence and in celebration of Canada’s 150th anniversary, approximately 25 Canada 150 Research Chairs will be created to attract top-tier international scholars and researchers to Canada and enhance Canada’s reputation as a global centre for innovation, science and research excellence. Budget 2017 proposes to invest $117.6 million over eight years for these new chairs, funded with resources within the existing Canada Excellence Research Chairs program.
Our analysis:
As part of their 10 Big Ideas to Drive Innovation in Canada, Moffatt and Rasmussen created the concept of a ‘Canada 150 Goals’ and ‘Canada 150 Prizes.’
They wrote that innovative thinking can solve some of the more difficult social and economic problems the country faces, such as a lack of safe drinking water and substandard housing on First Nations reserves, a persistently large gender wage gap and growing rates of fentanyl and other opioid addiction.
The suggested the use of goals and prizes, which we have adapted from both the XPrize Foundation and the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.
Their Recommendation was that the federal government identify a set of measurable national goals, the Canada 150 Goals. In addition, the federal government should create a set of Canada 150 Prizes, with large cash prizes for projects that will help meet these goals.

4. IMPROVING THE TEMPORARY FOREIGN WORKER PROGRAM AND INTERNATIONAL MOBILITY PROGRAM

From the budget:
As announced in the 2016 Fall Economic Statement, the Government will launch a Global Skills Strategy to facilitate faster access to top global talent for companies doing business in Canada that are committing to bring new skills to Canada and create more Canadian jobs.
The Global Skills Strategy will set an ambitious two-week standard for processing visas and work permits for global talent.
Building on funding announced in the 2016 Fall Economic Statement, Budget 2017 proposes to provide an additional $7.8 million over two years, starting in 2017–18, to implement a new Global Talent Stream under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, as part of the Global Skills Strategy.
Also under the Global Skills Strategy, the Government will introduce a new work permit exemption for short-duration work terms. The short-duration work permit exemption will apply for work terms of fewer than 30 days in a year—or for brief academic stays—and will be used for short-term, inter-company work exchanges, study exchanges or the entrance of temporary expertise.
Our Analysis:
Participants at our Financial Services roundtable noted the difficulty of bringing in foreign expertise in their sector. Indeed, we were told that if there are talent (or cultural) gaps in the system, immigration might offer an answer.
However, one roundtable participant noted that it takes so long to bring executive-level talent into Canada under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program that a candidate will have typically moved on to other opportunities by the time their application is approved.
Canada 2020 is happy to see that continued improvements have been made to this program, and hopes that it will bring more talent into Canada in the future.

5. SUPPORTING INNOVATION IN KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

From the budget:
Budget 2017 supports innovation in key growth industries—clean technology, digital and agri-food—with new measures that will improve access to financing, encourage investment, support the demonstration of technologies and build the capacity necessary for Canadians to take advantage of growth opportunities and create good, well-paying jobs.
Budget 2017 includes a particular focus on the clean technology sector, proposing more than $2.2 billion, on a cash basis, to support clean technology research, development, demonstration and adoption as well as to accelerate the growth of clean technology companies. This includes making available nearly $1.4 billion in new financing on a cash basis over three years, starting in 2017–18, through the Business Development Bank of Canada and Export Development Canada.
Our analysis:
Moffatt writes in Canada 2020’s report Towards and Inclusive, Innovative Canada that Canada is one of the world’s leaders in the production and use of renewable energy. In 2012, renewable energy represented 17 per cent of Canada’s total energy supply. This was a dramatic increase from a decade earlier. In addition to supplying Canadians with electricity, renewables play an important role in our trade with the U.S. Several provinces are net exporters of hydro-generated electricity to the U.S.
Members of Canada 2020’s Clean Technology and Renewables roundtable, held in August, 2016 in Vancouver, would likely applaud this financial support, but would probably re-iterate the need to grow companies beyond the initial stages.
One participant at our roundtable felt that government financing programs were quite useful for the ear¬ly stages of product development, but not for obtaining financing for commercialization. He said that “Sustainable Development Technology Canada is terrific for early stage innovation,” and cited government support through the Scientific Research and Experimental Development Tax Incentive, the National Research Council Canada, the Industrial Research Assistance Program, and others.
“There’s a lot of baked-in support before it gets to commercialization. There is help from the public sector to get across the ‘valley of death.’” he said. Then he added, “But when you get to the first market entrant, there is not a lot of debt financing or private capital. These companies are light on assets, so banks won’t lend to them. So companies, even if they do make it across the ‘valley of death,’ do not have the necessary assets or financing to commercialize.”
6. TEACHING KIDS DIGITAL SKILLS AND CODING
From the budget:
To ensure that young Canadians are well prepared for the way digital technologies will impact future jobs all across the labour market, Budget 2017 will invest $50 million over two years to support organizations delivering digital skills training to girls and boys from kindergarten to grade 12.
Our analysis:
In Towards an Inclusive, Innovative Canada, Moffatt and Rasmussen suggest that early education include numeracy, before moving to digital skills and coding. As one of their 10 Big Ideas to Drive Innovation in Canada, Big Idea 7 is to Create a National Numeracy program that introduces numeracy skills in early childhood education.
They quote a 2012 study by the Conference Board of Canada that found that 55 per cent of Canadian adults had inadequate numeracy skills. Also, inadequate numeracy skills are higher in marginalized groups, such as Aboriginal people in Canada and immigrants. A person with inadequate numeracy skills may be unable to function well in an innovative Canada as low numeracy skills are linked to unemployment, low wages and poor health.
Moffatt and Rasmussen write, “Poor numeracy is a massive challenge for Canada’s innovation agenda and our goal of encouraging economically inclusive innovations.
The goal for this big idea is to build on measures proposed and/or put in place by other countries struggling with the same numeracy issues in order to eradicate inadequate numeracy among adults and children, and to create more positive attitudes towards numeracy in Canadian society.”

Download Towards an Inclusive, Innovative Canada

Malmström: Progressive Trade Policy in a More Protectionist World

Cecilia Malmstrom
The following is the full text of a speech given by EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom on CETA, the EU and Canada and progressive trade at a Canada 2020 event on March 21, 2017.
 
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.
Je vous remercie pour l’amitié européo-canadienne et je suis heureuse d’être là.
It is indeed important to be here. In an age when rising populism and protectionism poses a threat to our open societies, there has never been a more important time to defend progressive trade policy.
Today I’d like to talk about what we mean by that; and how Canada and the EU can be partners in pursuing it.
Canada and Europe see eye-to-eye on many issues. We have a similar philosophy on domestic issues, such as the need to provide and protect public healthcare. We face common challenges, such as climate change or terrorism. Something we will remember tomorrow, the anniversary of the terror attacks which struck Brussels, the city where I live.
Yet our relations have long been defined by commerce. Many of the earliest settlers here were attracted by the spoils of trade. Beaver furs were sought after in Europe and exchanged for the European manufactured goods that were much in demand here.
This trade opened up the incentive to explore the new continent and help its nascent economy develop and grow.
It even found its way into the language: the name “Ottawa” itself, the city and the river which flows from the mountains of Québec, may come from the Algonquin word for “trade”.
Today, trade – in products, services, ideas – is still a way of engaging with the wider world, to mutual benefit; engaging for peace, prosperity and progress. This is the vision we put forward in our trade for all strategy: responsible trade policy that is effective, transparent and based on values. It is the vision we are taking forward as we pursue a progressive trade policy, in a programme of over 20 trade negotiations.
The EU and Canada are natural allies. The EU is the world’s biggest trader and is Canada’s second biggest trading partner.
To the EU, you sell over 40 billion Canadian dollars’ worth of goods from agriculture to zinc not to mention 17 billion in services like engineering or finance.
And from the EU you buy products and services of all kinds: medicines from Belgium, tulips from The Netherlands and hockey pucks from Slovakia.
Beyond trade, we also share many values: democracy, the rule of law, and the right of governments to provide public services such as healthcare.
The EU-Canada deal we have just agreed, known as CETA, ends 99% of tariffs, opens up markets like services, and public procurement and supports investors.
Now that we have completed ratification at EU level, the provisional application of CETA is imminent. And there are benefits for both sides.
Each extra tariff reduction, each extra bit of market access, means on one side, an exporting company that can compete; and, on the other side, a consumer — or a business, or a public authority — who gets a better deal.
A shopper seeing lower prices on the supermarket shelves. A business that can compete better in global value chains. A health service that can pay less for its supplies or a public authority that can buy more efficient clean technology to fight climate change.
Meanwhile, every extra investment by a European company in Canada can help a European company to grow while creating jobs over here.
EU-owned affiliates already employ nearly 400,000 workers in Canada. To believe in progressive trade policy is to recognise trade can bring benefits for both sides.
But it must be responsible and sustainable. The fur trade that furnished Canada’s fortunes many centuries ago was ultimately not sustainable. The hunting of beavers for their fur made the animal endangered, while the struggle for control of supplies and hunting-grounds eventually led to all-out war.
Trade should not mean a race-to-the-bottom on standards, or come at the cost of the environment. The EU’s trade strategy Trade for All sets out how a responsible trade policy can be effective, sustainable, transparent, and based on values. In Europe, as in this country, people expect the food they eat, the products they buy, to be safe, and to meet democratically-set standards and rules.
So we have been clear that nothing in CETA will undermine those standards — or public services. Both parties can still use environmental or labour criteria in public procurement, if they want. Neither party can undercut or fail to implement labour or environmental standards merely to attract trade or investment. Public services stay public unless a municipality or province decides differently.
And we resolve investment disputes in an open court with qualified judges, avoiding the conflicts of interest that could in turn jeopardise the public interest.
More than just protecting standards, trade deals can promote them. CETA is an exemplar of what we can achieve here. In the EU-Canada trade deal, both parties agree to implement multilateral environmental agreements such as the Paris climate change deal as well as international labour rules on issues like equal pay, collective bargaining and employment discrimination.
They agree to promote sustainable forestry and fisheries alongside initiatives like corporate social responsibility, eco-labelling, fair trade, and recycling.
We take a similar approach with the rest of the world, promoting sustainability and good governance: in our bilateral talks when granting unilateral trade preferences and through our detailed work with countries like Myanmar and Bangladesh.
The success of CETA will help us take that agenda forward. It is a model for progressive trade that promotes values. A template to shape globalisation. As we seek open trade, we should ourselves be open. If anything gives trade policy a bad name, it’s secrecy.
But we have nothing to be ashamed of, as we act on behalf of our citizens. This is why we have started to publish as much as we can of the details of trade negotiations.
Why we include civil society both as we negotiate trade deals -to get their input and publishing detailed reports- and implement them.
Progressive trade policy should — must — be transparent. A truly progressive trade policy also recognises, and supports, those who are left behind. Over recent years, the labour market has seen significant changes. While some benefit, others see wages stagnate, or face unemployment. These changes are mainly caused by technology – but trade has also played a role.
We should help those who have not been able to adapt with infrastructure, education, training and skills. And this is an area where we – also in the EU – need to do more.
And finally, progressive trade policy means championing trade that is fair and rules-based. The multilateral framework of the World Trade Organisation, the WTO, has for a long time safeguarded global trade a power source for rising global prosperity that helps lift millions out of poverty, setting and defending those global rules we have jointly agreed upon.
Yet some recent rhetoric seems to put that in question. The US administration seems to favour bilateral relations over multilateralism. And some of the proposals we have seen floated, such as a border adjustment tax, could be at odds with WTO rules. Countries should be able to protect themselves from distortions and unfair trade practices. But that has to be done within the framework of the WTO. Global rules mean everyone playing fair, by a consistent, predictable and transparent rulebook.
That is why we want the upcoming WTO Ministerial in Buenos Aires to succeed, and are working with partners to achieve that success and to show that the multilateral organisation is still important.
That is why Canada and the EU are working together to take investment courts to the multilateral level. The response is positive – many countries want to work with us on this.
There is, sadly, nothing inevitable about progress. As Alice Munro put it, from the perspective of people in Victorian England, it must have been impossible not to believe that people would inevitably become more civilised, more rational, more humane, with humanity’s greatest mistakes behind it.
Yet the turbulence and terror of the twentieth century lay ahead. In the words of another famous Canadian: “You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone”. We should not take any of these things for granted. We should fight to maintain the system that has guaranteed prosperity and progress.
Turning away from open trade, or the multilateral structures that underpin it, would come at great cost. Declining trade would cost jobs – 31 million of which in Europe depend on exports. Raising tariffs would put up consumer prices – particularly affecting the least well-off.
And rising protectionism could threaten the open societies and open economies that have brought freedom and opportunity to the people of Europe, Canada and the world. In an age when some want to rebuild walls, reimpose barriers, restrict people’s freedom to move we stand open to progressive trade with the world.
Between them, the EU and Canada account for almost one dollar in five of the world’s trade. And that we have agreed a new trade deal, our most ambitious and progressive ever, should send a powerful signal to the world. As other doors may be closing, ours will remain open.
This is a programme we are taking forward in over 20 negotiations: from Mexico to Japan, Mercosur to ASEAN, and others. And, if anything, we’ve seen partners giving more priority and more resources to these talks in recent months. By engaging with the world in this progressive trade policy, we can shape globalisation, rather than submitting to it.
We can make trade a vehicle for our values, protecting and promoting them. And we can safeguard the prosperity and progress, the freedom and opportunity that trade has brought.
The European Union is happy to have Canada as a partner in that struggle.
Thank you.